I would like to see less propaganda in favor of delaying starting a family. Most of it omits the downsides or outright denies that downsides exist.
I think that people who recommend delaying children, or who promote alternative lifestyles, recommend these things for _other people’s_ children.
Those few who practice what they preach are like the man who started the rumor that they’d struck oil in Hell. After everyone else left, they figured there must be something to it.
Nice writing, as to the entertaining/artistic feel of it.
I guess you hit half the, economic, argument for children: the aggregate demand they create could just as well be achieved by giving adults more money. And considering the main reason adults don't have more kids is not enough nor stable enough income, then that kills two birds with one stone.
The other half is the productive capacity.
All of legacy economics--and the rest of the new economics hasn't really diverged on this one--sees production in some relation to labor.
Take the infamous Philips Curve. Or even MMT's Warren Mosler's take on this is his Job Guarantee proposal (the JG):
Legacy Economics sees the unemployed as a buffer stock against inflation: any time the price is high--and Powell was the first Chairman of the United States to explicitly state that he is targeting higher unemployment--just raise the buffer stock of the unemployed--and prices will fall (theory that consumption drives high prices--and the unemployed get only half pay!). Then also, if high prices are (two opposite theories, one Philips Curve?) driven by not enough labor, then the buffer stock of the unemployed supplies that, and enables supply to grow without raising (via competition from the unemployed) per-worker wages.
So Mosler's idea, the Job Guarantee proposal (popularly called The JG) is to have a buffer stock not of the unemployed, but of the employed. One starts out, still given the Philips Curve-is-True mindset, with a slightly higher price level, but after that, every time the economy picks up, people leave the JG and go into the private sector work force--but note, aggregate demand isn't driven up by the booming economy as it would be if shifting people from half pay unemployment comp to full time work, as one is just shifting employed workers from the JG to the private sector, and not from half-pay unemployment compensation into full pay private sector employment.
But you see, even MMT's popular proposal, the JG is still legacy Philips Curve thinking. In reality, MACHINES exist in the economy, and everything doesn't just spin circles around labor, not only, as you point out on the question of "How the Heck do we Get enough Aggregate Demand if low paid men and women just won't have kids?"--but also, "How the Heck do we Create enough Production in the FUTURE without reproducing the workforce that produces?" So the second half of your MALTHUSIAN FUN CASTLES Novelette will be we do THIN AIR money creation and build huge machines, and their huge AGGREGATE SUPPLY trickles down to labor as MORE AND BETTER JOBS, which then pays for all those AGGREGATE DEMAND supplying Elf Castles, as well as kids popping up here and there and everywhere just like pretty dandelion "weeds."
So fun! It's crazy how the narrative has turned from 'there's too many of us' to 'how the f are we going to support all the old folks?' in such a short time. My bet is that soon enough aging won't be what it used to be and the old folks might just be able to support themselves better than we think. Here's hoping, anyway.
Actually I think this makes a great thought experiment. I am not worried about population collapse. I firmly believe that people will procreate just fine if the economic burden of having children, and raising a family are removed. I also think that there are a number of people who would just rather not have children. This is NOT a bad thing. Why can't some people's full time job just be raising healthy well educated kids. This leaves the remainder free to not have kids without guilt or "Shame".
In addition we are within 10 years of having the first generation of successful humanoid robots. Together with AI this will completely remake our economy. We don't need an ever increasing population to drive our economy, we need ever increasing power. We have also learned that fossil fuels are not a long term solution to our power needs and the sooner we transition to an all electric economy the better for our health, climate, and the world in general. If we could focus our world economy on making the transition for all the countries, the economy would continue to grow just fine and would probably accelerate.
If we would stop wasting money on Stupid things like fossil fuels, and wars (Yes, I realize that this cannot be a unilateral thing, Just say'n.......) We could easily pay for the transition, increasing levels of power for everyone, better education, and health care world wide.
As I've gotten older, I've come to realize that human beings are really hard to get rid of. Wars, famine, and plague have only made small and localized dents in the overall trajectory. I may be wrong, but I think that we will continue to grow just fine, when we can grow outward toward the stars. We still don't have the technology for that, but we are getting there. If our rate of population increase, decreases for a time while we accumulate that tech, that is probably not a bad thing.
It may ultimately turn out that we are all wrong, anti-Malthusians, if you will.
Perhaps AI is arriving at just the right time to continue to drive economic growth while our numbers dwindle. I may write about this possibility someday.
This is absurdly beautiful! I've been thinking a lot about the power of imagination and the ways our imaginations are constricted, and this is exactly the kind of imagining that opens my mind anyway to new possibilities, thank you for sharing!
It’s your choice to have children, or not.
I would like to see less propaganda in favor of delaying starting a family. Most of it omits the downsides or outright denies that downsides exist.
I think that people who recommend delaying children, or who promote alternative lifestyles, recommend these things for _other people’s_ children.
Those few who practice what they preach are like the man who started the rumor that they’d struck oil in Hell. After everyone else left, they figured there must be something to it.
Could pay people to have children. New child tax credit is out but a direct payment would be better.
Nice writing, as to the entertaining/artistic feel of it.
I guess you hit half the, economic, argument for children: the aggregate demand they create could just as well be achieved by giving adults more money. And considering the main reason adults don't have more kids is not enough nor stable enough income, then that kills two birds with one stone.
The other half is the productive capacity.
All of legacy economics--and the rest of the new economics hasn't really diverged on this one--sees production in some relation to labor.
Take the infamous Philips Curve. Or even MMT's Warren Mosler's take on this is his Job Guarantee proposal (the JG):
Legacy Economics sees the unemployed as a buffer stock against inflation: any time the price is high--and Powell was the first Chairman of the United States to explicitly state that he is targeting higher unemployment--just raise the buffer stock of the unemployed--and prices will fall (theory that consumption drives high prices--and the unemployed get only half pay!). Then also, if high prices are (two opposite theories, one Philips Curve?) driven by not enough labor, then the buffer stock of the unemployed supplies that, and enables supply to grow without raising (via competition from the unemployed) per-worker wages.
So Mosler's idea, the Job Guarantee proposal (popularly called The JG) is to have a buffer stock not of the unemployed, but of the employed. One starts out, still given the Philips Curve-is-True mindset, with a slightly higher price level, but after that, every time the economy picks up, people leave the JG and go into the private sector work force--but note, aggregate demand isn't driven up by the booming economy as it would be if shifting people from half pay unemployment comp to full time work, as one is just shifting employed workers from the JG to the private sector, and not from half-pay unemployment compensation into full pay private sector employment.
But you see, even MMT's popular proposal, the JG is still legacy Philips Curve thinking. In reality, MACHINES exist in the economy, and everything doesn't just spin circles around labor, not only, as you point out on the question of "How the Heck do we Get enough Aggregate Demand if low paid men and women just won't have kids?"--but also, "How the Heck do we Create enough Production in the FUTURE without reproducing the workforce that produces?" So the second half of your MALTHUSIAN FUN CASTLES Novelette will be we do THIN AIR money creation and build huge machines, and their huge AGGREGATE SUPPLY trickles down to labor as MORE AND BETTER JOBS, which then pays for all those AGGREGATE DEMAND supplying Elf Castles, as well as kids popping up here and there and everywhere just like pretty dandelion "weeds."
So fun! It's crazy how the narrative has turned from 'there's too many of us' to 'how the f are we going to support all the old folks?' in such a short time. My bet is that soon enough aging won't be what it used to be and the old folks might just be able to support themselves better than we think. Here's hoping, anyway.
Actually I think this makes a great thought experiment. I am not worried about population collapse. I firmly believe that people will procreate just fine if the economic burden of having children, and raising a family are removed. I also think that there are a number of people who would just rather not have children. This is NOT a bad thing. Why can't some people's full time job just be raising healthy well educated kids. This leaves the remainder free to not have kids without guilt or "Shame".
In addition we are within 10 years of having the first generation of successful humanoid robots. Together with AI this will completely remake our economy. We don't need an ever increasing population to drive our economy, we need ever increasing power. We have also learned that fossil fuels are not a long term solution to our power needs and the sooner we transition to an all electric economy the better for our health, climate, and the world in general. If we could focus our world economy on making the transition for all the countries, the economy would continue to grow just fine and would probably accelerate.
If we would stop wasting money on Stupid things like fossil fuels, and wars (Yes, I realize that this cannot be a unilateral thing, Just say'n.......) We could easily pay for the transition, increasing levels of power for everyone, better education, and health care world wide.
As I've gotten older, I've come to realize that human beings are really hard to get rid of. Wars, famine, and plague have only made small and localized dents in the overall trajectory. I may be wrong, but I think that we will continue to grow just fine, when we can grow outward toward the stars. We still don't have the technology for that, but we are getting there. If our rate of population increase, decreases for a time while we accumulate that tech, that is probably not a bad thing.
Tundra? In Africa? So much for AGW!
This makes me wonder whether Ian M Banks’ post scarcity ‘Culture’ sci-fi had a satirical intent that was lost on me when I was younger…
It may ultimately turn out that we are all wrong, anti-Malthusians, if you will.
Perhaps AI is arriving at just the right time to continue to drive economic growth while our numbers dwindle. I may write about this possibility someday.
Nice article Elle. I like how you brought the absurdity angle into the topic. Clever and original.
I'll take the “hanging gardens of Babylon” and "basically Atlantis", thanks bye
This is absurdly beautiful! I've been thinking a lot about the power of imagination and the ways our imaginations are constricted, and this is exactly the kind of imagining that opens my mind anyway to new possibilities, thank you for sharing!
Elle! Yeah. And so on. :)
Love this!